One of my primary goals is to start a new “scientific revolution.” Therefore, I have studied Thomas Kuhn’s “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.” Kuhn talks about “paradigm shifts,” which are major shifts in the underlying paradigms that scientists work from. One of the prerequisites for a paradigm shift is that there needs to be a consensus that the old paradigms are flawed. They are flawed because they don’t explain some of the observed facts. Eventually, new paradigms are adopted because they provide better explanations for what we observe. While I am not sure that we are at the point where there is a general consensus that some of our existing paradigms are flawed, I am seeing some encouraging signs.
Some of the evidence for flawed paradigms includes the replication crisis and the missing heritability problem. I will also argue that the age crime curve puzzle, which I write about in my online book called “The Criminological Puzzle,” is not solvable with existing paradigms. My paradigms are able to provide coherent explanations for these problems.
The Replication Crisis
The replication crisis arises because it has been difficult to replicate many scientific results. Where results are significant in the original study, they fail to be significant in attempts to replicate or “reproduce” the original study. Or, the opposite can occur, where insignificant findings are significant in replicated studies. My theories provide a ready explanation for the replication problem. I point out that living systems operate through “high dimensional chaos.” Chaos theory points out that chaotic systems have “sensitive dependence on initial conditions,” which has been popularized as the butterfly effect.
One might ask why I don’t just point out that chaos theory provides a better paradigm than our existing paradigms. Technically, this is true, but I find that chaos theory tends to focus on “low dimensional chaos,” which is an interesting subject. The concern I have is that the focus in many studies of low dimensional chaos is to find mathematical models to explain the chaotic effects. I will suggest that high dimensional chaos is too complex to be studied by trying to find all of the inputs that are creating the observed behaviors. That said, I am not suggesting that we avoid studying high dimensional chaos. I will argue that we can make predications based upon the basic elements of high dimensional chaos such as fluctuation sizes and linear trends. I will be using this simplified method of understanding and analysis as the basis for a new science.
The Missing Heritability Problem
The missing heritability problem is a conundrum in genetics. There has been some success in genome wide association studies in finding genes or sets of genes that are associated with particular diseases. However, many conditions suffer from the missing heritability problem, where only a small fraction of the variation in outcome can be attributed to any observed genetic variations. It has been suggested that the reason for the lack of correlation is due to the interaction between genes and between genes and the environment. With sufficient numbers of genetic interactions, the possible number of variations is almost infinite.
My model states this implicitly. One might argue that this is not a new idea. I will not suggest that it is. However, I incorporate this idea into my global model because it fits with my other ideas.
The Age Crime Curve Puzzle
I write about the age crime curve puzzle in my online book “The Criminological Puzzle.” Therefore, I will not go into great depths here. I mention this work because it pertains to the need for paradigm shifts in how we look at scientific problems. One of the basic issues is that we need to understand cumulative distribution functions and the nonlinear results we get with low base rates. The other issue is that we don’t have a great enough appreciation for the impact of development on behavior.
Conclusion
We need to think differently if we are to solve these problems. I am not sure that there is a general consensus that a paradigm shift is needed. However, I will try to chip away at the problem. Perhaps we can create a crack in the dam that will eventually lead to a major shift in thinking.